642
ACUS11 KWNS 212227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212227
VAZ000-220000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509...
VALID 212227Z - 220000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALLY FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO IS EVIDENT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION, A
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM IS EVOLVING ALONG AN EAST/WEST-ORIENTED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IN SOUTHEASTERN VA. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY, A WARM/MOIST PBL (MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS) IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. THIS, COMBINED WITH AROUND 40 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR AND A CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH (SAMPLED BY
THE AKQ VWP), IS YIELDING A LOCALLY FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
..WEINMAN.. 07/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...
LAT...LON 36617670 36787735 37037759 37307743 37367725 37277670
36837592 36607608 36617670
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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