530
ACUS11 KWNS 212303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212302
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-220000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST VIRGINIA...FAR SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND FAR
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...
VALID 212302Z - 220000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE 00Z WATCH EXPIRATION. A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION
MAY BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2255Z, KRLX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
WEST-NORTHWEST- TO EAST-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GILMER, LEWIS, UPSHUR, AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES WITH A STORM MOTION OF 296/33 KT. OVER TIME, THE LINE OF
STORMS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS, WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL TO THE
EASTERN END OF THE LINE. TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF CHARLESTON, WV,
SEMI-DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES EXHIBITING PERIODIC ROTATION ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER SHIELD OF WEAKER CONVECTION.
THE KRLX VWP, WHICH IS SAMPLING 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KT, IS LIKELY QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF
BOTH REGIMES. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED
AIR, AND RESULTANT WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY OFFSET THE
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO SOME EXTENT.
NONETHELESS, AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST
BEYOND THE SCHEDULED WATCH EXPIRATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS. AS SUCH, SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE EITHER
EXTENDED IN TIME OR ADDED TO THE MORE RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 PRIOR TO 00Z.
..MEAD.. 07/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38028099 38078163 38088228 38188266 38968250 39498184
39408072 39107950 38617969 38377995 38368036 38028099
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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