616
ACUS01 KWNS 221252
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND MAINE...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AS WELL AS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON.
..CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
THE REGION WILL INFLUENCED BY THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AND MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES,
ALTHOUGH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WARMING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. STORM REDEVELOPMENT AND RE-INTENSIFICATION
TODAY WILL TEND TO FAVOR A PERSISTENT WEST-EAST ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND EXISTING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BREAKS AND A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY WITH SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WIND PROFILES WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
VIRGINIA TOWARD THE DELMARVA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST PROBABLE
SEVERE HAZARD REGIONALLY, BUT SOME TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS WELL.
..NEW ENGLAND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO MAINE. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUPERCELLS ASIDE FROM ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS. DAMAGING WINDS, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PROMOTE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
(AROUND 30 KT 0-6 KM) DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A WEAK LEE LOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND THE
MIDWEST ANTICYCLONE WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE REGION.
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
OUTFLOW PRODUCTION. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MAY ALSO HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION FARTHER EAST
DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
..OREGON
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION VIA AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DIURNAL
HEATING/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED OVERALL BUOYANCY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR.
..GULF COAST
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA, GRAZING THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL FACTORS SUGGEST THAT INLAND/NEAR-SHORE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED INCLUDING AN EXPECTED
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF BERTHA AND POOR THERMAL PROFILES INLAND WHERE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE COAST ON ITS
EASTERN PERIPHERY.
..GUYER/BROYLES.. 07/22/2026
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