045
FNUS21 KWNS 221521
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE ISODRYT AREA BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, AND PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/22/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PROMOTES WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL
REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS, ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A MIX OF WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISODRYT AREA,
WITH OVERALL COVERAGE LIKELY EXCEEDING 50% ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
OREGON--PERHAPS APPROACHING 80% IN CENTRAL OREGON. PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 0.9-1.3" AMID SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED TRAINING
OF STORMS, INDICATING WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN A DROUGHT-STRESSED FUELSCAPE AND NUMEROUS
ONGOING WILDFIRES, LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
ON THE PERIPHERY OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL
THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN WA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS UP
TO 700 MB, AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG), AND
15-25 KT STORM MOTIONS. THIS METEOROLOGICAL SETUP GREATLY INCREASES
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING NASCENT WILDFIRES BORN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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