996
ACUS03 KWNS 221925
SWODY3
SPC AC 221924
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
..DISCUSSION
A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO QUEBEC AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S WILL BE COMMON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MLCIN MAY HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS STRUGGLING
TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. SHOULD A SUPERCELL BE ABLE TO
ROOT AT THE SURFACE, DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE. SHOULD TRENDS FAVOR THIS OUTCOME, HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY
BE NEEDED WITH SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..THORNTON.. 07/22/2026
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