548
ACUS11 KWNS 222344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222343
COZ000-230145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222343Z - 230145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES, TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT. THE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER (I.E., MLCAPE UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG), AND WITHIN A
ZONE OF STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. AIDED BY A GUST
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OR
LINE BY 01-02Z.
THE CURRENT KGLD VWP IS SAMPLING A 1-KM DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS, WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING
STORMS. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 30+ DEGREES, THE
SETUP APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 07/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39160355 39870376 40620387 40970359 40870269 39790245
39030262 38870309 39160355
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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