070
ACUS03 KWNS 230631
SWODY3
SPC AC 230630
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED ON SATURDAY.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ON SATURDAY. MODERATELY ENHANCED WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE REGION NEAR THE CREST OF THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE
DAKOTAS, AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DESPITE A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
TIME.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS DURING THE
DAY. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS FORECAST, AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..LEITMAN.. 07/23/2026
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