620
ACUS11 KWNS 232233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232233
KSZ000-240000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232233Z - 240000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THE NEED OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED MULTICELLS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN CO/KS BORDER WHILE
TRAVERSING A SURFACE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
STORMS, A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEARLY 100 F ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT, AND T/TD
SPREADS IN THE 30-40 F RANGE. SOME OF THE RECENT DDC VAD DATA SHOWS
APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE, WITH AROUND 300 M2/S2
0-3KM SRH POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR MODES MERGING INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SHOULD UPSCALE GROWTH CONTINUE, THE DEEP AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY ENCOURAGE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS TO PROMOTE A SEVERE GUST THREAT. AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF HAIL
MAY ALSO OCCUR. EITHER WAY, CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IF STORMS CAN
FURTHER ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS.
..SQUITIERI/MOSIER.. 07/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37400157 38410140 38740133 38910101 38720013 38169956
37589955 37229968 37000040 37080116 37400157
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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