361
ACUS01 KWNS 241249
SWODY1
SPC AC 241248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A TORNADO RISK ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
..DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRAIL SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL OVERSPREAD A WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH, WITH MLCAPE INCREASING ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, RESULTING IN A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH SOME
CLUSTERING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING. LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS, AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH GRADUALLY INCREASES ONTO THE EVENING. ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERING COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF GREATER
SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL. SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST AS STORMS
MOVE INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
LATE EVENING, WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE
TO INCREASING CINH AND WEAKENING BUOYANCY.
FARTHER NORTHWEST, SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD THEN MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
..COASTAL CAROLINAS VICINITY
NEAR/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL FRONT, RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING OF A
RICHLY MOIST AIRMASS (PW ABOVE 2 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
WEAK, BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD
COVER, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
WINDS WILL BE WEAK, STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/MIXING WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.
..PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK, BUT STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE HOT AND WELL-MIXED REGIME. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY SUCH
SEVERE-CALIBER WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL IN NATURE.
..GUYER/WENDT.. 07/24/2026
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