804
ACUS11 KWNS 241936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241936
MNZ000-NDZ000-242100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241936Z - 242100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. ONGOING ACTIVITY REMAINS ELEVATED, BUT CINH HAS STARTED TO
ERODE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK HAS OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH 45 TO 50 KNOTS BEING SAMPLED AROUND 6KM BY THE MBX VAD.
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS APPROACHING THE
REGION (AS EVIDENCED BY MID-LEVEL ACCAS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE UNCAPPED AIRMASS FARTHER EAST
WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, EXPECT SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR ALL
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. MOST NOTABLY, VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN SUPERCELL STORM MODE, STRONG INSTABILITY, STRONG SHEAR, STEEP
LAPSE RATES, AND STRONG VENTING FLOW ALOFT. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE PRESENT, PARTICULARLY
IN VICINITY OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY.
..BENTLEY/SMITH.. 07/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47810152 48400053 49029936 49129851 49149583 48959481
48629364 47909376 47149581 46849708 47209923 47410102
47810152
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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