587
ACUS11 KWNS 241949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241949
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-242145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241949Z - 242145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST
WINDS, BUT THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND NEGATE THE
NEED FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS DRAPED FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. MODIFYING A RECENT 18 UTC AMA SOUNDING
USING RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (WHICH FEATURE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S WITH 55-60 F
DEWPOINTS) SUGGESTS THAT MLCIN HAS LARGELY BEEN ERODED BY THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MLCAPE HAS LIKELY INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG. THE
RATE OF CUMULUS GROWTH ACROSS EASTERN NM AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
CORROBORATES THIS ANALYSIS AND SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 F AND THE 18 UTC
SOUNDING SUGGEST BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF
2-3 KM ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL PROMOTE DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS - POSSIBLY AS
STRONG AS 55-65 MPH BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND OUTPUT
FROM RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (WHICH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING
THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS WELL). HOWEVER, POOR DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE TRANSIENT AND POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP FOCUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WIND THREAT TO MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
GIVEN THESE CONCERNS, WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 07/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34630377 36260190 36620129 36680079 36690028 36539997
36269987 35959989 35610000 33710256 33560301 33550340
33670369 34020382 34370388 34630377
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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