831
ACUS01 KWNS 242002
SWODY1
SPC AC 242000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A TORNADO RISK ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
..20Z UPDATE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY INCREASING SYNOPTIC
ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND JET, SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS ARE
LIKELY. SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED, WITH SOME 2-3+ INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ROBUST SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE INITIALLY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN
MN AS STORMS BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE. A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE BUOYANCY AND PLUME OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPARENT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ND.
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY,
WHERE LOWER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. A CIG-1 WIND AREA WAS INCLUDED WHERE THE LATEST
HRRR/RRFS TIME-LAGGED RUNS SHOW GREATER CLUSTERING WHICH COULD
PROMOTE A SUSTAINED DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL THREAT INTO THIS EVENING.
SEE MCD#1622 FOR SHORT-TERM INFORMATION.
..CAROLINAS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. 5% WIND
PROBABILITIES WERE TRIMMED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST WHERE STORM
COVERAGE/CLUSTERING ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.
ELSEWHERE, THE PRIOR FORECAST REMAINS VALID WITH NO CHANGES.
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF TX, AZ AND ID.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AND ACTIVE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
..LYONS.. 07/24/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1123 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026/
..DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MINNESOTA
VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MN AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ND FROM A CYCLONE MOVING EAST
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF HUDSON BAY.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD A
WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH, WITH
MLCAPE INCREASING ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS THEREBY PROMOTING STORM ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUALLY A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO. MORNING MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED (ND) TO SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT (MN) LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS (1 TO 3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER). SOME TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY FOCUS ACROSS NORTHERN MN
WHERE LOWER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS
BECOME CO-LOCATED FOR A FEW HOURS. ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF GREATER SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL.
SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE INTO A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CINH
AND WEAKENING BUOYANCY.
FARTHER NORTHWEST, SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD THEN MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
..EASTERN ID INTO NORTHEAST NV
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EVIDENT IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN UT INTO SOUTHEAST ID THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER RIDGE. WIDELY
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES SUPPORTING AMPLE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS 60-70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD
COVER, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
WINDS WILL BE WEAK, STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/MIXING WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.
..SOUTHEAST AZ
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE WESTWARD. A COUPLE OF THE
STRONGER HIGH-BASED DOWNDRAFTS MAY YIELD A RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS FOR
A FEW HOURS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES BY LATE EVENING.
..COASTAL CAROLINAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL FRONT, RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING OF A
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
BUOYANCY ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF
STRONGER WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A LOCALIZED
WIND-DAMAGE RISK.
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