766
ACUS11 KWNS 242248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242248
NDZ000-250045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...
VALID 242248Z - 250045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING STORMS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WIND SWATH IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS CONTINUE
TO MERGE, AND A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM MULTIPLE HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS HAS MERGED
OVER THE PAST HOUR, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS ACROSS CENTRAL ND. THIS MCS IS POISED
TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AMID AN ENVIRONMENT COMPRISED OF STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WELL OVER 50 KTS.
STRONGER CORES REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MCS, WITH MRMS MOSAIC
MESH SHOWING POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL CONTINUING WITH THIS STORM.
HOWEVER, MULTIPLE MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS IN THE 60-80 MPH RANGE HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN RECEIVED AS UPSCALE GROWTH CONTINUES. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS (PERHAPS
MAINTAINING MCS STRUCTURE) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS, RESULTING IN SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. IF A MORE ORGANIZED
LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED, ORIENTED NORMAL
TO THE NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR, A SEVERE WIND SWATH
MAY RESULT. EITHER WAY, 50+ KT GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE, WITH 75+ MPH
GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46790015 47179934 47339871 47309810 46959778 46559777
46269817 46089893 45999967 45950018 46790015
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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