651
ACUS11 KWNS 242350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242349
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-250115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 242349Z - 250115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ONGOING MCS MAY CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512 INTO FAR WESTERN MN. SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT, THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES OR INSTANCES OF SEVERE
HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE CURRENT MCS PERSISTING.
DISCUSSION...A COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
AMID A FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/BUOYANCY PARAMETER SPACE. 23Z
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS OVER 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR (ALIGNED ROUGHLY NORMAL TO CURRENT MCS
LEADING-LINE ORIENTATION) PRECEDING THE MCS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ONGOING WW INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER, APPRECIABLE MLCINH
ALSO EXISTS DOWNSTREAM, SO MCS PERSISTENCE IS UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, IF
MLCINH PROVES TO BE A LESSER CONCERN, AN MCS MAY PROGRESS INTO MN
WITH SEVERE GUSTS, AND A WW ISSUANCE WOULD BE NEEDED.
..SQUITIERI/MOSIER.. 07/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45899862 46419769 46649642 46589546 46319498 45899497
45589538 45409600 45419681 45599794 45899862
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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