411
ACUS11 KWNS 250243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250243
MNZ000-250415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 511...
VALID 250243Z - 250415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 511 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE GUSTS MAY BECOME THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE REMAINING DOMINANT STORMS CONGEAL, THOUGH A TORNADO OR
INSTANCE OF SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A DIFFUSE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AT THE TERMINUS OF A LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION
REGIME, WITH A RECENT HISTORY OF SEVERE HAIL AND A REPORTED TORNADO.
HOWEVER, BOTH KMVX AND MRMS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT THE
REMAINING MATURE SUPERCELLS TO BE CLUSTERING, PERHAPS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES (GIVEN
RESIDUAL 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER
02Z MESOANALYSIS). HOWEVER, IF AN MCS MATERIALIZES, SEVERE GUSTS
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD. EITHER WAY, THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INCREASED MLCINH WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN
THE STORMS AND LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT IN A FEW HOURS.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 48159643 48119544 47979431 47719353 47429319 47079315
46899340 46879387 46989448 47199514 47379568 47669625
48159643
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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