162
ACUS03 KWNS 250720
SWODY3
SPC AC 250719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50+ KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THAT UPPER-AIR
SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER
MI INTO SOUTHWEST ON DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY.
..GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING FORCING/DCVA DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SEASONABLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST AT THE OUTSET OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND AS SUCH, THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SUBSET OF THE EARLY-DAY
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT, LEADING TO A CORRIDOR OF MORE
FOCUSED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM LOWER MI INTO IN AND OH, AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF KY AND WV MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER MO VALLEY, STRONGER CAPPING AND WEAKER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE, POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION; HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND POTENTIALLY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTS A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 07/25/2026
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