472
ACUS11 KWNS 251915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251915
SDZ000-NEZ000-252045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251915Z - 252045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...80-100 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A VERY HOT ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH TEMPERATURES OF 105 TO 110F ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE 18Z UNR RAOB SHOWS NEARLY 2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT
PROFILE, BUT EVEN AFTER MODIFYING THIS TO SOMETHING MORE REALISTIC,
MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG SEEMS LIKELY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN
SPC MESOANALYSIS BUT IS MORE CONGRUENT WITH CURRENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY WHICH SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AREAS THAT CURRENTLY INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
REMAINING INHIBITION FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS.
THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS DECK AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE, AND CONSIDERING THE 50F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS,
EXPECT OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS AND A CONGEALING COLD POOL. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE, BUT GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST AND VERY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT TO THE EAST WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES, EXPECT AN MCS TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE
WIND GUSTS (PERHAPS HAS HIGH AS 100 MPH).
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS THREAT IN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND A PDS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
CONSIDERED.
..BENTLEY/SMITH.. 07/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44170221 44900061 45029856 44819662 43819654 43379694
43039743 42990042 43050140 43580230 44170221
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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