022
ACUS03 KWNS 251926
SWODY3
SPC AC 251925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
..GREAT LAKES TO OHIO VALLEY
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS,
WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS. WHILE EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY, THE MOST PROMINENT HEIGHT
FALLS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY FROM WI
INTO LOWER MI, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN IL. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REDEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS NEAR 40 KT DEVELOP OUT OF THE WEST.
SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY BE PRESENT FROM UPPER MI INTO WI, AND THIS
COULD EITHER PERSIST OR STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALONG WITH THE
STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD-MOVING MCS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS, PERHAPS WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES
COULD BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN NE
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE, EASTERN LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN A POST FRONTAL
REGIME WILL AID WESTWARD MOISTENING, WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE UNCAPPED AIR MASS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MODEST WESTERLIES ALOFT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES
SHOULD FAVOR SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW
WINDS.
..JEWELL.. 07/25/2026
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