238
ACUS11 KWNS 251951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251950
MTZ000-252145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251950Z - 252145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA. WATCH ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE.
DISCUSSION...EARLY ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN
EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL MT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
LINGERING INHIBITION HAS LARGELY LIMITED STORM LONGEVITY AND
INTENSITY THUS FAR; HOWEVER, DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WHILE
SOME LINGERING INHIBITION LIKELY PERSISTS, FURTHER HEATING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD ERODE INHIBITION AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN. RECENT GOES IMAGERY
SHOWS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CUMULUS ACROSS PARTS OF ID AND SOUTHWEST
MT, HINTING THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST INTO THE HOTTER AND MORE DEEPLY MIXED
AIR MASS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL INCREASE (ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW FROM
RECENTLY DECAYED CONVECTION). GIVEN SOME DEGREE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW (30-35 KNOTS NEAR 500 MB PER RAP ANALYSES AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS), LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS APPEAR POSSIBLE, AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 65-80 MPH. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AND WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES
IMMINENT.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 07/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 46641229 46981201 47810953 47920867 47780768 47540722
47220680 46860658 46420653 46080665 45850698 45790733
45780793 45810849 45810911 45740976 45651016 45511080
45451136 45431174 45521204 45721228 46251240 46641229
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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