199
ACUS11 KWNS 252302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252302
SDZ000-260100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513...
VALID 252302Z - 260100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS FROM 75 TO 90 MPH AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND GROW UPSCALE.
DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS CLUSTER IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A
RESERVOIR OF AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS
NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A
FEW IN FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
REPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 80S. THIS COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
IN TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S, IS SUPPORTING
EXTREME BUOYANCY, WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING OVER 3000 J/KG
MLCAPE. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE CLUSTER TO
INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO A SIGNIFICANT WIND-PRODUCING MCS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE VERY STRONG, DESTRUCTIVE WIND
GUSTS FROM 75 TO 90 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MORE LIKELY AFTER
00Z.
A DISCRETE SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CLUSTER OVER HYDE COUNTY SOUTH DAKOTA. GIVEN
ITS MATURE AND ORGANIZED CHARACTER, EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS
SUPERCELL TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR, WITH ITS MOTION
POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS IT GROWS
UPSCALE. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER AND STRONG GUSTS OVER 75
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CELL.
..MOSIER.. 07/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 43829976 44919964 45229884 44939762 43729703 43079771
43180002 43829976
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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