210
ACUS11 KWNS 252326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252325
SDZ000-260100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513...
VALID 252325Z - 260100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM 65 TO 80 MPH AND LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER CENTRAL
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA (ABOUT 30-40 MILES EAST OF RAP), WITH A SUBTLE
MOISTURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW. THIS CONVERGENCE, AIDED BY WEAK
WARM-AIR ADVECTION, HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG TO VERY STRONG BUOYANCY. MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES RESULTS IN STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AS WELL.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ALTHOUGH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CLUSTER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD IMPACT THE DOWNSTREAM THERMODYNAMICS. A TREND
TOWARDS A MORE EASTERLY MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL, AS STORMS
GROW UPSCALE AND BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM 65 TO 80 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, ALTHOUGH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY IF ANY STORM MERGERS OCCUR.
..MOSIER.. 07/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44490102 44920166 45460155 45880070 45869885 44699926
44440009 44490102
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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