592
ACUS11 KWNS 261639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261639
MNZ000-NDZ000-261815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261639Z - 261815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN SOME SIGN OF
STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST HOUR AS IT MOVES FROM MANITOBA INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPERCELL IS ELEVATED, WITHIN THE POST
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIRMASS AT THIS TIME. ALREADY WEAK FORCING, FROM
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW DISSIPATES. THIS CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE FATE OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS
DESTABILIZING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY AND ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE, A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, IF THERE ARE SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED TRANSITION
AND/OR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, A
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
..BENTLEY/LEITMAN.. 07/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 49279830 49169559 48899438 48009442 47449501 47349663
47899755 49089833 49279830
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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