794
ACUS11 KWNS 261820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261820
FLZ000-GAZ000-262015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261820Z - 262015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME WIND THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION...KVAX AND KJAX RADAR AND GOES IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY
GROWTH OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA WITH
EMBEDDED SWATHS OF STRONG WINDS NOTED IN VELOCITY IMAGERY AND
CONFIRMED BY A RECENT REPORT OF 39 MPH. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY,
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S
WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 F. BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEPTH/MIXING HAS DEEPENED SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE INCREASED TO 8 TO 8.5 C/KM ACROSS NORTHERN FL INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GA. ADDITIONALLY, A SUBTLE BUOYANCY AXIS IS NOTED ACROSS
THIS SAME ZONE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THIS
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. REGIONAL VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STORM
ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY (AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT) WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS, BASED ON THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
AND RECENT REPORTS DOWNBURSTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40-60 MPH
GUSTS.
..MOORE/LEITMAN.. 07/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30428363 30868245 31138213 31188177 31108155 30858141
30398140 30108154 29808181 29638217 29598252 29618281
29758323 29948341 30188357 30428363
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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