218
ACUS11 KWNS 262217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262216
SDZ000-NEZ000-270015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262216Z - 270015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO EARLY EVENING. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...CUMULUS IS GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST-CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD, IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL ABOVE 100 F NEAR THE TROUGH,
WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MLCAPE
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM WEST-CENTRAL NE TO OVER 4000 J/KG INTO
SOUTHEAST SD, PER RECENT OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSES. VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE
RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT, CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION, TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER,
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE-STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING, GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. SEVERE GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH APPEAR TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITHIN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH IF A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAN EVOLVE WITH TIME, THEN
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING IN ORDER TO ADDRESS THESE THREATS.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 07/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 40840091 40890144 41060169 41350184 41920123 42510027
42989983 43349958 44209912 44599889 44549843 44419813
44079741 43619693 43079706 42519746 41999815 41389927
41050001 40930040 40840091
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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