395
ACUS11 KWNS 270440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270439
MIZ000-270645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN UPPER MI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 270439Z - 270645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL STORM CLUSTER HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT UPPER MI. THIS CONVECTION IS
POTENTIALLY BEING AIDED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY
FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PRIMARY BUOYANCY GRADIENT. RELATIVELY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODERATE BUOYANCY, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
OF 40+ KT WILL CONTINUE TO CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.
ISOLATED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS, WHILE ANY NOTABLE
UPSCALE GROWTH COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING STORM EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT, AND
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING ONGOING
CONVECTION. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED
IN THIS REGION, WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SUPPORT AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 07/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...
LAT...LON 46758598 46888488 46428405 45428356 44138360 43878380
43878492 44008589 44268637 44988676 45278678 45608683
46518621 46758598
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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