984
ACUS11 KWNS 271812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271811
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-272015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271811Z - 272015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERCOLATING ACROSS THE GREATER
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND TRANSIENT SO FAR,
A FEW STRONGER CORES HAVE BRIEFLY PULSED TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS
BEFORE DECAYING. WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
MODULATE OVERALL STORM INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY; HOWEVER, STEADY
DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S WITHIN A SOMEWHAT MOIST AIR MASS.
THIS HEATING/MIXING HAS ALLOWED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 8 TO 8.5 C/KM, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS (MOST LIKELY 40-60 MPH). GOES
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL DEEPENING TOWERS AND CUMULUS CLUSTERS, HINTING
THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE - ESPECIALLY
ALONG A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOCALIZED AND TRANSIENT TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/HART.. 07/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38207507 37887551 37947593 38207613 38617667 39087684
39667684 40417673 40977659 41447642 41837595 41947547
41907481 41767428 41547395 41257373 40717366 39987386
39387441 38857489 38207507
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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