282
ACUS03 KWNS 271922
SWODY3
SPC AC 271920
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA, AND
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
..SOUTHEAST
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN AS
THE LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL REDEVELOP
OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHWARD ACROSS
GA, AL, AND INTO FL, AND THE CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
WHILE A RIBBON OF 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE MAINTAINED. TALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG WILL FAVOR
HIGH ECHO TOPS AND POSSIBLE WATER-LOADED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK, BUT THE GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID SOUTHEASTWARD STORM
MOTION AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MT/WY INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AS A MINOR DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND ENHANCES
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LATE IN THE DAY. MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UP TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE, AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE
RELATIVELY STEEP THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WY,
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
EVENING. THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG
OUTFLOW, WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING. SPORADIC MARGINAL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
..JEWELL.. 07/27/2026
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