461
ACUS11 KWNS 280009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280009
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-280145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN
INDIANA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521...
VALID 280009Z - 280145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS,
WITH DAMAGING GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 521 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 01Z, A WW TIME EXTENSION OR A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THE
LONGER-TERM THREAT.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF A BROADER REGION OF CONVECTION. MRMS MOSAIC MESH
RADAR DATA SHOWS SEVERE HAIL FALLING WITH THESE STORMS, SEVERAL OF
WHICH CONTAINING 30 DBZ ECHO TOPS EXCEEDING 50 KFT. THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AMID AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 4000
J/KG MLCAPE AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE AMBIENT PARAMETER SPACE PRECEDING THESE STORMS, SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS, WHICH
EXCEEDS THE EXPIRATION TIME OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521.
THEREFORE, EITHER A TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
521 OR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 07/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 37778793 40648786 40668755 40518712 40228676 40018665
39598665 39038681 38408692 37948693 37638703 37528718
37528756 37628779 37778793
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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