498
ACUS02 KWNS 280541
SWODY2
SPC AC 280539
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME
MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO GA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING THROUGH THE WESTERN INTO NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT
FEATURE.
AT THE SURFACE, A COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. FARTHER WEST, A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..SOUTHEAST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE, PREFRONTAL AIR MASS
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000-4000 J/KG. THE GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH WILL
COMBINE WITH MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO FOSTER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL INTO
SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL. WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, A MODEST
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE. THAT,
ALONG WITH THE STRONG BUOYANCY, HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT, AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS, ESPECIALLY IF SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY
(E.G., MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG) ARE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST ARE
EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP, ALLOWING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED,
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALIZED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THERE IS SOME MODEL
SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT DEVELOPING
OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOULD THAT SIGNAL
PERSIST, AN UPGRADE TO LEVEL 2/SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED.
..SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, IF LATER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, LOW SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
..MEAD.. 07/28/2026
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