935
ACUS48 KWNS 280816
SWOD48
SPC AC 280814
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/FRIDAY
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE INTENSE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST, WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSION OF THOSE
FEATURES WILL BE TOWARD AN AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING
WITH ONLY AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW. STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU, AHEAD OF
A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. BUT, GIVEN THE NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY,
THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
ELSEWHERE, AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MOIST, LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE REGIME.
..DAY 5/SATURDAY
THE DAY 4 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID
MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE, THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY AFTERNOON. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT; HOWEVER,
GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT.
..DAY 6-8/SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BOTH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDING BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
COULD MATERIALIZE ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER ND ON SUNDAY
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AS
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR OVERSPREADS AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. BY
TUESDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME.
..MEAD.. 07/28/2026
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