187
ACUS11 KWNS 281757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281757
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-282000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281757Z - 282000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. EVENTUALLY, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS/LINES APPEARS LIKELY WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE COMING HOURS AS STORMS BEGIN TO MATURE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS THE EARLY
STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND
FURTHER WEST WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A
RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM DENVER, CO SHOWS ONLY AROUND -50 J/KG
MLCIN REMAINING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. FURTHER
HEATING AT LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDUCE INHIBITION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND YIELD A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION - ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT INTO A PLUME OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOCAL VWPS ARE
ALSO SHOWING 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL PROMOTE EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF CONVECTION OFF THE TERRAIN AND SOME DEGREE OF
ORGANIZATION IN THE COMING HOURS.
CONSEQUENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT SOME HAIL THREAT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MATURE. WITH TIME, COLD POOL EXPANSION AND STORM INTERACTIONS
SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED, BUT BUOYANT,
ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AND MAY POSE A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT
DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NE. IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL BE, BUT
WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE SEVERE WIND
CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..MOORE/HART.. 07/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39180526 40100526 40520515 40800497 41010463 41580304
41720245 41650220 41300203 40830198 40330215 39890230
39510255 39230280 39010322 38860361 38970500 39080520
39180526
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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