650
ACUS11 KWNS 291822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291822
FLZ000-GAZ000-292015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291822Z - 292015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED, TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED, WIND DAMAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERING OCCURS
AND POSES A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
FL. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA IS PRIMARILY BEING
DRIVEN BY ASCENT ALONG A WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING (TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S) AND IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
3000 J/KG. THESE HOT TEMPERATURE ARE ALSO SUPPORTING STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM, WHICH WILL FOSTER
ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFTS WITH A DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND RISK WITH ANY
DEEP/ROBUST CONVECTIVE CORE.
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE COMING HOURS AS FURTHER HEATING OCCURS, THOUGH WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
(MOST LIKELY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED). VWPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
GA/NORTHERN FL CONTINUE TO SAMPLE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS), BUT STRONGER FLOW (25-35 KNOTS) APPEARS TO BE
GLANCING CENTRAL GA BASED ON UPSTREAM VWP OBSERVATIONS. THIS MAY
SUPPORT SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZATION/CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY YIELD ONE OR MORE
FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF/WHEN
SUCH CLUSTERS BEGIN TO EMERGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..MOORE/HART.. 07/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31528460 31918398 31988324 32008243 31938142 31408118
31038134 30688141 30398143 30028138 29168114 29158160
29228236 29318296 29468324 29828353 30018385 30168419
30318444 30598472 30808487 31058491 31288485 31528460
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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