262
FNUS22 KWNS 291853
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS CENTRAL
IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA FOR DAY 2/THURSDAY. WHILE LIMITING
FACTORS TO STORM INITIATION (LISTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
STILL APPLY, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AFTERNOON
(AND POSSIBLY NOCTURNAL) THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING ERCS GREATER
THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE REGION, AND SEVERAL ONGOING
WILDFIRES, A LIGHTNING IGNITION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE
INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/29/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY EXPAND FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE
THE LARGER TROUGH AND MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON INTO
IDAHO FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
AN ISODRYT AREA WAS MAINTAINED FROM CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WESTERN
MONTANA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD, THICK SMOKE ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THESE POTENTIAL CONSTRAINTS, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, HIGH-RESOLUTION
FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST (I.E., AROUND PEAK
HEATING), THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALOFT TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF 0.5-0.8" AND EXPECTED
HIGH LCLS WITH A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER, MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO WETTING RAIN.
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
AMID MINIMUM RH OF 5-20%.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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