543
ACUS03 KWNS 291928
SWODY3
SPC AC 291927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM IOWA SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OZARKS, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..IA/MO/AR
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES TO OVER 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO DURING
THE DAY, MOVING INTO WESTERN IL BY 12Z SATURDAY.
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IA
AND INTO CENTRAL MO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WHILE MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP, MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG IS
STILL FORECAST. FURTHER, WINDS WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT, RESULTING IN
SEMI-FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER
30 KT.
EARLY DAY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO IA AND MO AS THE
INITIAL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS, WITH DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL, A BRIEF TORNADO, OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PLACEMENT OF
SUCH A NARROW NORTH/SOUTH RISK AREA HAS INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES THIS
FAR OUT, BUT A CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
..EASTERN CO/NM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT WILL EXIST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS PEAK HEATING IS ATTAINED. DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F,
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
YIELD A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.
..JEWELL.. 07/29/2026
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