775
ACUS48 KWNS 300837
SWOD48
SPC AC 300835
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAYS 4 AND 5/SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO OZARK PLATEAU MAY DISRUPT THE ADVECTION OF A MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF AN EML PLUME, WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT BOTH
AFTERNOONS.
ON SUNDAY, THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
VORTICITY LOBE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SK AND MB WITH CAPPING
TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE POTENTIALLY LIMITING STORM COVERAGE
ALONG THE FRONT IN ND. ON THE CONDITION THAT STORMS DEVELOP, THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, OH VALLEY, AND GULF COAST STATES.
ON MONDAY, A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SUPPORTING A POTENTIALLY
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.
..DAYS 6 THROUGH 8/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES ON TUESDAY
WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS JUXTAPOSED WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE UPSLOPE REGIME.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
MODESTLY ENHANCED BELT OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ACROSS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT AIR STREAM. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION
AND EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
..MEAD.. 07/30/2026
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