710
ACUS11 KWNS 301837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301837
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-302030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301837Z - 302030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE MAY
POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, A LIMITED KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY MODULATE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION AND NEGATE THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DEEPENING ALONG A SUBTLE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND OVER THE PAST 30-60
MINUTES WITH MRMS VIL SHOWING STEADY GROWTH OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
CORES WITHIN A BROADER BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THIS MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION IS BEING FOCUSED WITHIN A PLUME OF RELATIVELY RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE MLCAPE IS BEING ANALYZED AROUND 3000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH ENTRAINMENT IS LIKELY YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO
1500-2000 J/KG, THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PROMOTE FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE COMING HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MIGRATES
SOUTHEAST.
THE NEARBY KMVX VWP IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING A SOMEWHAT MODEST WIND
PROFILE. 5-7 KM WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS ARE YIELDING 0-6 KM BWD
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KNOTS. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION, THE RECENT DEMISE
OF A STORM NORTH OF KMVX CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW SUPPORTIVE THE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
NONETHELESS, AS THE EMERGING CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE, EMBEDDED
DEEP CONVECTIVE CORES MAY POSE AN ISOLATED/TRANSIENT HAIL RISK, AND
SOME DEGREE OF STRONG/SEVERE WIND THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AS STORMS
SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN A BUOYANCY AXIS AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INTO MN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL, CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 07/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46749311 45909746 45859827 45889861 46029884 46359890
46749872 47769700 49009518 49309477 48559241 48309224
47939228 47639233 47329236 46919256 46749311
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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