270
ACUS11 KWNS 301934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301933
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-302130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301933Z - 302130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
AND SOUTHWARD TO THE RATON MESA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITH TIME, A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL SPREAD
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
LOCALIZED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...GOES IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CUMULUS ACROSS THE RATON
MESA/NORTH-CENTRAL NM, ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL CO,
AND WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH-CENTRAL CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY BEING DRIVEN DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, BUT THESE FORCING MECHANISMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
THE COMING HOURS AS THE DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMUM APPROACHES.
ADDITIONALLY, MIXED-LAYER INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE AS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WARM INTO THE LOW 90S, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE AS CONVECTION SLOWLY
SPREADS EAST TOWARDS LOWER ELEVATION GIVEN 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT.
DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY UNCAPPED DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT, THE
MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IS SUPPORTING ONLY
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY. HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM WILL
PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS. CONSEQUENTLY, SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS (MOST LIKELY 55-70 MPH) WILL LIKELY EMERGE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD
GIVEN WEAK/LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A MODEST
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT, BUT ONE OR TWO MORE PROMINENT
CLUSTERS MAY EMERGE AND RESULT IN A MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE
WIND POTENTIAL. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, THIS APPEARS MOST PROBABLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS NM AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE RATON
MESA.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 07/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35900415 36330451 36740475 37150474 39420469 40740461
40960442 41110405 41090351 40910318 40410293 39890286
39000293 38230262 37880240 37310189 36810174 36370179
36090202 35930249 35850292 35900415
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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