710
ACUS01 KWNS 310052
SWODY1
SPC AC 310050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD INTO
EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA. ANOTHER
MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE FEATURES, ALONG AND NEAR AN INSTABILITY AXIS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP FROM WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE SEGMENT THAT IS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, WHICH IS NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.
ALONG THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR, THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE. THE NORTH PLATTE 00Z SOUNDING IS JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE INSTABILITY MAX AND HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS, WITH
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT, AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS.
ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER IN THESE
TWO AREAS SUGGESTING THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 07/31/2026
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