732
FNUS22 KWNS 312002
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN OREGON AND FAR WESTERN
IDAHO INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ON DAY
2/SATURDAY.***
..DAY 2/SATURDAY UPDATE
THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO NORTHERN
OREGON TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RH AMID A VERY RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE.
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE UP TO 20 MPH AS RH BEGINS TO DECLINE. NOTABLY, AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO BROADLY WESTERLY (PERHAPS TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING) IS DEPICTED BY HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH. DAYTIME RH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5-15% WITHIN THE RISK AREA; THOUGH, SHOULD
INCREASE TO OVER 50% THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ORIENTATION OF
ENHANCED 850-500 MB WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CASCADES (AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON) TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, GENERATING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR VERY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IN THE LEE
AND IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE (GUSTS OVER 50 MPH).
AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON, ROBUST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB 60-70 KT EMERGING ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT OF NORTH/CENTRAL MONTANA, ADVANCING STRONG
DOWNSLOPE SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH OR GREATER (50+ MPH GUSTS)
STARTING AROUND 00Z AND PERSISTING THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT AMID 99TH ANNUAL PERCENTILE
ERCS AND AN INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE. THESE OVERNIGHT
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AN EXPANSION IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS, THOUGH LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN,
THOUGH RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO PRECLUDE THE EXPANSION
OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS. HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON DAY
2/SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A PRECONDITIONING-STYLE EVENT,
LEADING INTO EXPANSIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON DAY
3/SUNDAY ALONGSIDE THE EMERGENCE OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED HOLDOVERS.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/31/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0219 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON D2/SATURDAY AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PROGRESSING RAPIDLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDERLYING A 35-45 KT 700 MB
JET WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AMID A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WHERE DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE
OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH (LOCALLY
HIGHER IN FAVORED TERRAIN/GAP FLOW AREAS) AND GUSTS OF 35-45+ MPH. A
FEW LARGE WILDFIRES ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION, AND ERCS
ARE NOTED TO BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE. THIS
COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND FUEL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS AN
UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
WHILE THE BEST OVERLAP OF THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON, A BROADER AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ALSO EXPECTED FROM EASTERN OREGON AND FAR WESTERN IDAHO INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON, THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, AND NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA. ACROSS THIS REGION, SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP VERY LOW RH OF 5-20% (WITH THE LOWEST RH
VALUES FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA) AND ERCS COMMONLY ABOVE THE 90TH
TO 98TH PERCENTILES. RECENT GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A SEPARATE
AREA OF STRONGER, PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (UP TO 20
MPH) MAY MANIFEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, VERY LOW RH OF
5-20%, AND ERCS RANGING FROM THE 80TH TO 98TH PERCENTILES WILL ALSO
FOSTER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS A LARGER AREA
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, EASTERN PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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