151
ACUS11 KWNS 312230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312230
MOZ000-ILZ000-010000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 536...
VALID 312230Z - 010000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 536 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 536.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500+ J/KG AND 0-3 KM CAPE OF 100+ J/KG PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S F, LOW LCLS,
AND A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
SAMPLED BY THE LSX VWP) WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION
PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT CAN FAVORABLY
INTERACT WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
ANALYZED NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER AND THE MORE BACKED SURFACED WINDS
NOTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY.
..CHALMERS.. 07/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38249070 37699079 37349120 37219184 37289246 37539271
38159302 38569303 38919293 39409270 39759243 39889201
39859153 39689121 39319099 38669073 38249070
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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