820
ACUS03 KWNS 010726
SWODY3
SPC AC 010725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND A SMALL PART OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. MORE ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
..SYNOPSIS
A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WESTERN
SD INTO NORTHERN MN, ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE, A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE OF A TROUGH SITUATED OVER QC. THAT MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND
WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY STORMS, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
AT THAT TIME ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST
MN, WHERE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD ERODE THE CAP.
THERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
WITH STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. POTENTIALLY LARGER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND RESULTANT HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS MAY
CURB THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT.
STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT IN SD AND NE REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL.
..SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-DAY STORMS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, WHERE STRONGER
HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. FORCING WITHIN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO YIELD AN
INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 08/01/2026
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