161
ACUS03 KWNS 011928
SWODY3
SPC AC 011927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA......
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND A SMALL PART OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND IN
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
..SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE WAVE WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
D3/MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM WESTERN SD INTO
NORTHERN MN, WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR THE COLD FRONT. EARLY DAY STORMS
MAY BE ELEVATED, LIKELY POSING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL. BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION, STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. HIGH LCLS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE AIR MASS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN
CENTRAL/MINNESOTA WILL LIKELY REMAINED CAPPED AND FREE OF MORNING
CONVECTION. STRONGER HEATING AND MOISTENING IN THIS REGION MAY
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, LIMITED BY REMAINING CAPPING AT THE
BASE OF THE EML THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL.
..SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHERE FILTERED HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE
PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. FORCING WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO YIELD AN INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 30-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..THORNTON.. 08/01/2026
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