531
ACUS11 KWNS 012001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012000
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-012200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012000Z - 012200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR AND A WW IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 20 UTC, VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF
DEEPENING CUMULUS AND INITIAL SHOWERS ALONG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN INTO
NORTHERN AL/MS. SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST,
SYNOPTIC ASCENT IS RATHER MODEST, AS IS CONFLUENCE WITH VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE LAGGING SURFACE FRONT. REGARDLESS,
CONTINUED HEATING APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ERODE
THE VERY WEAK LINGERING INHIBITION, WITH THE MODEST FRONTAL FORCING
SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S F ARE SUPPORTING LARGE BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS, WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
MOST CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT, WITH 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW
ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS. THIS WOULD FAVOR SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING
GUSTS GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND WATER LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS. SEVERE RISK
IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED WITH THE MORE ROBUST CLUSTERS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AL AND EVENTUALLY INTO GA AND SOUTHEAST TN THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS A
WW IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
..LYONS/MOSIER.. 08/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32448675 32308798 32688864 32978862 33378857 33878830
34568760 34758741 35048708 35258668 35398546 35358470
35268453 35138436 34908438 34448458 33878486 33258530
32818581 32558625 32448675
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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