091
ACUS03 KWNS 020718
SWODY3
SPC AC 020717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD, CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, TO THE NORTH OF AN ELONGATING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITHIN THAT PATTERN,
THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE BOUNDARY TRAILING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
A SIMILAR SETUP TO THAT ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERT. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BOOST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
AROUND 30 KT, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND
AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..MID MISSOURI VALLEY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS TO LIMIT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN IA; HOWEVER, THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING MECHANISMS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ANY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR MUCAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS, DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR, THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER STRUCTURE WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CAP CENTERED
AROUND 600 MB LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND SUSTENANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP,
THE PRESENCE OF 30-40+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A 5% PROBABILITY CONTOUR.
..MEAD.. 08/02/2026
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