674
FNUS21 KWNS 021650
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 021700Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN
UTAH...WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO...AND
MONTANA...
..CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 1600Z SHOW SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO NEAR 20-25 MPH AT FORT BELKNAP AND
GLENDIVE, AND TO NEAR 25 MPH AT CUT BANK, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S F ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20-25 MPH (WITH STRONGER GUSTS) OVERLAP MINIMUM
RH VALUES OF 10-15% AND CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS. THE MOST
PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HI-LINE AND ACROSS THE
JUDITH BASIN.
...DRY THUNDERSTORMS - CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED -
POTENTIALLY HIGH-BASED - THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST. LITTLE WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, AND ANY
LIGHTNING WOULD OCCUR OVER CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS, WITH ERC
VALUES IN EXCESS OF THE 95TH PERCENTILE. NEW IGNITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THUNDERSTORM CORES, AND GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT FIRE BEHAVIOR ON ANY ONGOING
FIRES. CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LOW.
..EASTERN IDAHO
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 1600Z SHOW SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH IN PLACE AT POCATELLO AND IDAHO FALLS,
WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WIND SPEED ACROSS THE UPPER PLAIN. SEVERAL
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THESE WINDS OVERLAP MINIMUM RH VALUES NEAR 10-15% AND
CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS.
..WYOMING BASINS
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS. SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20 MPH SHOULD OVERLAP MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-15% AND
CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FUELS ARE MOST RECEPTIVE ACROSS THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS,
WHERE ERC VALUES EXCEED THE 95TH PERCENTILE.
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP MINIMUM RH
VALUES NEAR 20% ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND FROM
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS, THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO BRIEF/SPOTTY TO
UPGRADE TO CRITICAL. NEVERTHELESS, ANY FIRES IN THESE AREAS COULD
EXHIBIT RAPID GROWTH/SPREAD GIVEN ERC VALUES NEAR THE 95TH
PERCENTILE.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
..ELLIOTT.. 08/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0200 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY,
WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE AND A DRY COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN
GREAT/HIGH PLAINS.
..MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND
EASTERN IDAHO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (12 UTC) TODAY, WITH LEE
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO.
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT/LEE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMONLY 15-25
MPH SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN AND
NORTHERN MONTANA, WITH THE DIRECTION VARYING FROM WESTERLY (NORTHERN
MONTANA) TO NORTHERLY (NORTHEASTERN WYOMING). ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW (35-45+ KTS AT 700 MB) LINGERING ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA
BORDER WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO THE EVENING, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO NEAR 15 MPH FARTHER EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS (WESTERN ND/SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY)
BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE WIND GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY,
GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH (LOCALLY UP TO 50-60 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS MONTANA THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, RH VALUES ARE NOTED TO RANGE FROM 10-25%
ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA AS OF 530 UTC SUNDAY, WITH ONLY MODEST
RECOVERIES EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD AT 12 UTC. THIS
WILL FAVOR QUICK RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY (LOCALLY DROPPING TO 10% LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON). WITH ERCS COMMONLY EXCEEDING THE 90TH AND 95TH
PERCENTILES (98TH PERCENTILE IN NORTHERN MONTANA), THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD (6+ HOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS) OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FORECAST FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ALSO FORECAST AHEAD OF THE LEE
TROUGH FROM THE KS/CO/NE BORDER VICINITY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SD
WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% THIS AFTERNOON.
FINALLY, GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PROGRESS
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING
A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WINDS (WITH POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH).
..CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, GENERALLY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY, WITH MAGNITUDES
UP TO 25 MPH (PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER) FOR UP TO 6+ HOURS IN SOME
LOCATIONS AMID RH OF 10-20%. FARTHER EAST, INITIALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING WILL ACCELERATE TO 20-25 MPH
AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY AMID RH REDUCTIONS TO 10-20%. WHILE
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL, ERCS ARE
ALREADY NOTED TO BE AROUND THE 80TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES OR GREATER,
AND PRECEDING DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY LIKELY AIDED IN THE
CURING OF FINE FUELS. THUS, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS, RH, AND FUELS
WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
..EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO
LINGERING, ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW UP TO AROUND 15 MPH (LOCALLY TO 20 MPH) WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH, PRIMARILY IN FAVORED GAP/TERRAIN FLOW
AREAS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE CASCADES. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20-25% (EASTERN WA/NORTHERN ID) TO
10-20% (SOUTHEASTERN OREGON). THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
..GREAT BASIN
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS RANGING FROM WESTERLY
(CENTRAL/WESTERN/NORTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH) TO SOUTHWESTERLY
(SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH) ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH (LOCALLY UP TO 20 MPH) ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
5-15% ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION, WITH ERCS NOTED TO RANGE FROM THE
80TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD TO NEAR THE NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH
THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE/HREF
PROBABILITIES.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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