608
ACUS11 KWNS 021709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021709
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-021915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021709Z - 021915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED
AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST
VIRGINIA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S IS FOSTERING UP TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE, THOUGH LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST TODAY. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR
IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW, WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE, WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES, WILL
SUPPORT MODEST 0-1 KM SRH (AROUND 100 M2/S2 PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS). THIS COULD SUPPORT MODEST STORM ROTATION, AND A BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH THIS RISK WILL BE MUTED BY POOR
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED/TRANSIENT ACROSS
THE BROADER REGION, AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN/MOSIER.. 08/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 38198248 39308095 39337957 39067892 38427866 36757970
36148102 36238233 36428275 36838294 37918261 38198248
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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