496
ACUS03 KWNS 021925
SWODY3
SPC AC 021924
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL US D3/TUESDAY, WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INCREASED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEPLY MIXED AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD NEAR
THE SURFACE FRONT. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN IA;
HOWEVER, THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE FORCING MECHANISMS LEADS TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT
WILL ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. POOR
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES.
..THORNTON.. 08/02/2026
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