424
ACUS11 KWNS 022016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022016
NMZ000-AZZ000-022215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022016Z - 022215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2015 UTC, REGIONAL VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHWEST NM. A VERY
WARM AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90SS TO 100S F
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALSO PRESENT. DESPITE ONLY MODEST
SURFACE MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F) THE AIR MASS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH FURTHER HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST, FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY LIGHT,
BUT ~20-25 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
ORGANIZATION OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS OUTFLOW CONSOLIDATES AND
STORMS MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLUSTERING COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. HOWEVER, THE WEAK
BUOYANCY AND LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LARGELY SPORADIC. THUS, A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY.
..LYONS/MOSIER.. 08/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31641233 33131181 33461113 33801064 33980939 33640892
33020860 32420863 31780875 31170902 31130958 31211072
31281102 31641233
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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