207
ACUS11 KWNS 030429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030429
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-030630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN PA INTO PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030429Z - 030630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE AND BRIEF-TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED BUT GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD EASTERN PA, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN PA TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY,
WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST. A
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE ERIE, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE THE PRECEDING
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR ACROSS THE REGION (GENERALLY 6 C/KM
OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE), WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SRH (AS DEPICTED IN REGIONAL VWPS
FROM KDIX AND KOKX) MAY ALLOW FOR TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION AND
ROTATION INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT OF
A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS.
..DEAN/HART.. 08/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 40537499 41017506 41347509 42117487 42447357 42147302
41767274 40717339 40317450 40357478 40537499
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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