450
ACUS11 KWNS 032022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032021
NMZ000-AZZ000-032215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032021Z - 032215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHWEST NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME CLUSTERING WILL
PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR A
WW IS UNCLEAR, BUT COULD BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2015 UTC, VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN MOGOLLON RIM. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS WAS NOTED ACROSS
THE RANGES OF SOUTHERN AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM AS THE AIR MASS HAS
WARMED. CONTINUED HEATING (SURFACE TEMPS OF 90-105 F) IS SUPPORTING
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG, INCREASING
TO NEAR 2000 J/KG LATER TODAY. AS INHIBITION DECREASES THE CURRENT
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS AND THE BREACHING OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY MATURES THIS AFTERNOON, MODEST NORTHEASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY
ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOWEST FEW KM AND SOME COLD POOL AGGREGATION SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS, WITH SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED HAIL
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL STRONGER UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE MODERATE
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
FORCING SUGGESTS A GENERALLY SLOWER CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND MORE
LIMITED ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL.
CAM AND AI/ML GUIDANCE DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MEXICAN BORDER THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK. WHILE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH IS UNCLEAR, CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..LYONS/GLEASON.. 08/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31751274 32071276 32371275 32751248 32971203 33541122
33571089 33171001 33180935 33120870 32890845 32650823
32030794 31750792 31270804 31140915 31201106 31751274
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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